tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-87904572011-12-14T18:37:55.157-08:00Taking on the Oracle of Omaha...one investment at a time!LBnoreply@blogger.comBlogger951100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1114749320283087962005-04-28T21:33:00.000-07:002005-04-30T14:07:20.616-07:00

(Pre Script: Same graphics problem applies for this post as well...my apologies.)I forgot to look at the big boys...the boys who will show us the way through this mess. Below you will find charts and commentary on the DJIA, Nasdaq, and the S&P 500.(Insert Weekly DJIA)The Dow Jones Industrial Average is finding support where it once found resistance from the looks of things on the weekly chart

LBnoreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1114749212119960992005-04-28T20:59:00.000-07:002005-04-30T14:06:28.696-07:00

(Pre Scricpt (Instead of Post Script) The graphics program I use is not working right now. I only got 1 chart to work so far. I will upload the rest when the program is working...I hope that is soon. It is very frustrating, but I guess I don't pay anything for this blog format or the graphics program.)"Turn away...I'm hideous!", says the market.It sure is getting ugly out there!So, here is the

LBnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1114613583686173012005-04-27T07:44:00.000-07:002005-04-27T07:53:03.686-07:00

I'm still hot on the trail of these auto manufacturer's and the Wall Street Journal has a good article today about some interesting developments in the saga.Two of my favorite parts of the article are these:1)Mr. Okuday, Toyota's chairman, on Monday "called for giving Detroit more breathing room to address its problems, even suggesting Toyota might raise prices on cars sold in the U.S. to ease

LBnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1113666273999594122005-04-16T08:43:00.000-07:002005-04-16T10:26:13.813-07:00

Wow!!!That's all I can say after the market action this week.The bulls were shredded and eaten by the bears and that might be the nice way of putting the situation. Take a look at the longer term pictures of the big three indicies:DJIA Weekly Chart The Dow Jones Industrials smashed through the 50-day SMA on increased volume. The index is looking to be pretty oversold, but what's not to stop it

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1113404441169972642005-04-13T07:58:00.000-07:002005-04-13T08:00:41.170-07:00

I have to apologize for the lack of blogging lately. I am very busy with some personal business. I think that I will be moving to weekly posting for a while. So, look for something up on the weekends or use the very handy RSS feeds to keep up on my extremely excellent commentary.Best Regards,The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1113403728653495492005-04-13T07:41:00.000-07:002005-04-13T07:48:48.656-07:00

A while back I wrote up a research report for personal use and showed it to Bill Cara. He posted it on his blog at www.billcara.com (See here, here, and here). KOS Pharmaceuticals has appreciated from that point very well (around 50%). This should go to show that individual investors can succeed where Wall Street has failed them.Join us on our quest. There are many good investment bloggers

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1113403005737384462005-04-13T07:28:00.000-07:002005-04-13T07:39:59.736-07:00

Here is a pretty good article from the Wall Street Journal on the Automotive Industry. If you'll remember a while back, I am on the lookout in this industry being a contrarian value sort of investor. We'll have to keep track of this industry together and reap the benefits later.Best Regards,The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1112633818564523472005-04-04T09:54:00.000-07:002005-04-04T09:56:58.566-07:00

Just another reason to contribute the maximum amount possible to your IRA each and every year:According to the Wall Street Journal, "The Supreme Court ruled creditors may not seize Individual Retirement Accounts when people file for bankruptcy, giving protection to a nest egg relied upon by millions of Americans."Here is a link to the full story if you have a subscription.Best Regards,The

LBnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1112216539566677122005-04-03T12:56:00.000-07:002005-04-04T06:17:23.546-07:00

We are dusting off the ‘ol Investment Roundtable this week and analyzing a favorite of most Americans. I’m speaking of a true American company. Not only is this company the largest fast-food restaurant in America, but the world. I’m obviously talking about McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD).MCD is currently trading at $31/share with a market cap of around $39.4 billion. As Standard and Poor’s tells us,

LBnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1111899064171498702005-03-28T17:44:00.000-08:002005-03-28T15:54:47.796-08:00

One thing you've got to know is that the market moves in cycles. The market goes up and it goes down. To make what some would call a "killing" you've got to buy as close to the bottom of the cycle as possible and sell as close to the top of the cycle.The automobile manufacturers are moving towards the bottom of their cycle. It might not be possible to call the exact bottom, but we can get close.

LBnoreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1112033837771268332005-03-28T10:13:00.000-08:002005-03-28T10:17:17.773-08:00

A few months ago there was a bunch of hoopla over Fundamental versus Technical Analysis. The argument has been raging for years, but was spurred this time because of the firing of a whole technical analysis team from a bulge bracket bank. The correlation being that if this "big time" bank was getting rid of their entire TA team, then TA must be useless. I obviously beg to differ, but that was

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1111807228009101312005-03-25T23:19:00.000-08:002005-03-27T00:49:26.640-08:00

To get back into the swing of things, let's take a look at what the markets, in general, are doing. To accomplish this task I have included the charts of the DJ Composite, DJ Industrials, DJ Transports, DJ Utilities, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100.Once again, I would like to reiterate that these markets are very tricky right now to gauge. We are at a turning point, and no one is really sure

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1111806895807408242005-03-25T19:14:00.000-08:002005-03-25T21:23:09.063-08:00

Click to Enlarge I have returned from Chicago and had a great time. I was there for St. Patrick's Day and Chicago knows how to show an out-a-towner a good time. The picture is of the "green" river that is dyed for the special Irish occasion.I'll write something up for this weekend. It's good to be back.Best Regards,The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1111006252342489402005-03-16T12:50:00.000-08:002005-03-16T12:50:52.343-08:00

I'll be in Chicago the rest of the week. I hope everyone is doing well and I'll be back next week. Thanks.Best Regards,The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1110765913150411642005-03-13T18:04:00.000-08:002005-03-13T19:18:57.256-08:00

Now more then ever investors and traders need to look at every corner of the globe to find quality investments. This is becoming easier and easier. There are ETF's and IShares and all sorts of investment vehicles that can give you international exposure.Below you will find monthly and weekly charts for the Nickei 225 and the Japan ETF. This is one ETF you might want to keep an eye on. Japanese

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1110596919643543832005-03-11T19:08:00.000-08:002005-03-11T19:51:33.753-08:00

Joseph Quinlan, the Chief Market Strategist for Bank of America, came out with a good piece of research and writing this week. The basic premise of the report can be summed up by this paragraph:"While rising world energy prices may be an unpleasant fact of life, there is a bright side to the spike in oil prices. Oil producers, flush with cash, recycled record sums of petrodollars back into the

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1110393879671170382005-03-09T10:42:00.000-08:002005-03-09T10:44:39.673-08:00

Mark Cuban has given away his portfolio sectrets! There might be some gems in this group. I will have to check them out and I suggest you do the same.Best Regards,The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1110385137666981512005-03-09T08:11:00.000-08:002005-03-09T08:19:59.536-08:00

Barry Ritholtz over at The Big Picture drilled a little deeper into the employment report and wan't as impressed as the market."Drilling beneath the headlines, the report was far less bullish. We note 3 specific issues:· The unemployment rate ticked up, from 5.2 to 5.4%;· Average hourly wages were unchanged;· Long-term unemployed (27 weeks+) remained at 1.6m;· Persons holding more than one job

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1110231418775728302005-03-07T13:34:00.000-08:002005-03-07T13:36:58.776-08:00

Here is an article from Forbes about Mr. Buffett's record at making market calls. The Oracle of Omaha (my arch nemesis) certainly does get a lot of press around this time every year.Best Regards,The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1110050759797724912005-03-06T14:54:00.000-08:002005-03-08T03:49:54.796-08:00

Here, we are going to take a look at the big boys, which are the indicies that consume the investors' lives. We are hoping that we will be able to find some sense of what is going on within the current market conditions.The new employment report sent the indicies higher on Friday. This one report seemed to add the extra oomph to the market that some participants were looking for to get involved.

LBnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1110088957550247342005-03-05T21:58:00.000-08:002005-03-05T22:02:37.553-08:00

Here is Mr. Warren Buffett's 2004 missive about his company, investing, and so much more. Enjoy!Best Regards,The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1110000167604473932005-03-04T21:18:00.000-08:002005-03-05T18:46:09.690-08:00

This week the Investment Roundtable is analyzing Exxon Mobile (NYSE: XOM). XOM is a member of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has a market cap of a little over $405 billion, and is the world’s largest publicly owned integrated oil company.Exxon is obviously a play on the oil industry and the rising oil prices have been helping XOM appreciate 58.34% in a little over a year. With all of the

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1109799875060313252005-03-02T13:38:00.000-08:002005-03-02T13:58:27.280-08:00

Bill Cara is throwing down the gauntlet! Bill states that we have reached the cycle high on the Dow 30 at 10,869. Bill adds some advice as well, "Sell stocks. Sell bonds. Clear your debts, including short-term mortgages. Accumulate cash. Buy gold. And, if you’ve got a job, hope you can keep it." Kind of scary talk coming from Mr. Cara.It seems what Chairman Alan Greenspan said today got to him.

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1109734051893207632005-03-01T19:12:00.000-08:002005-03-02T13:29:54.620-08:00

Recently there has begun a, fundamentals are better than technicals and vice versa, argument floating around the financial world. This was all started from the recent firing of Louise Yamada and the entire technicals team at Smith Barney. I believe Ron Sen, over at Technically Speaking, has a great observation about the entire ordeal. It seems that Ms. Yamada might have been a little too bearish

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1109732010988015442005-03-01T18:53:00.000-08:002005-03-01T19:12:38.050-08:00

Below you will find three charts that are each telling a story. Two of these charts are related to the commodities bull market we are currently in and the other is of a fallen angel.Click to Enlarge the Daily Chart This first chart is of Phelps Dodge (NYSE: PD). I wrote earlier in my post "Falling From Grace" that PD had broken down through its uptrend line and to watch out for the implications

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1109634741306442672005-02-28T15:42:00.000-08:002005-02-28T15:52:21.306-08:00

I found a pretty useful website that tells you what some of the "Gurus" of investing are actually investing in currently. Here is a list of some of the Gurus:Warren Buffett (Obviously)The Soothsayer of Omaha (Just Kidding)Kenneth Fisher (I wouldn't call him a "Guru", but it's not my list)George SorosDavid DremanBill MillerWallace WeitzBill NygrenEtc.The useful part about this website is that it

LBnoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1109394719588156822005-02-25T21:11:00.000-08:002005-02-27T18:30:04.743-08:00

This week the Investment Roundtable is taking on Comcast Corporation (NASDAQ: CMCSA). Comcast is the largest cable TV system operator in the US, with around 21.5 million subscribers in 35 states. Comcast currently has a market cap of around $44 billion according to Standard and Poor’s, which puts it at the top of the pack.The big news, I believe, with Comcast are the recent investments by my

LBnoreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1109349502221556662005-02-25T08:34:00.000-08:002005-02-25T08:38:22.223-08:00

I try to mostly stay out of politics on this blog, but this is a good article from a good source about some secrets in the privitization debate that Wall Street is holding. This article is not meant to sway, but is intended for you to think about the issue more.Best Regards,The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1109346632592809402005-02-25T07:46:00.000-08:002005-02-25T07:50:32.593-08:00

Here is something crazy to think about. The Chairman himself, Mr. Alan Greenspan, will be gone in 9 months. What's going to happen? Will this be the time when the bears finally win out and their predictions come true or will the new Fed President be just what the market ordered?Here is one interpretation.Best Regards,The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1108689183119949142005-02-22T22:08:00.000-08:002005-02-23T20:11:41.653-08:00

Microsoft is getting pretty close to giving a valid break of the uptrend line. A valid break usually consists of a close below 3% of the uptrend line. That would mean that MSFT would have to close at $24.98/share for the uptrend break to be considered valid. MSFT is currently trading at $25.48, which gives the position about 2% more wiggle room. This level is pretty close to where the 50 and 200-

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1109088824114458662005-02-22T08:11:00.000-08:002005-02-22T08:13:44.116-08:00

Mr. Buffett recently made a trip to Vanderbilt to allow some of the students at the Owen School of Management to interview him. Here are some of their notes.Thanks to www.vinvesting.com for this excellent resource.Best Regards,The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1109037926812810202005-02-21T17:52:00.000-08:002005-02-21T18:05:26.813-08:00

While doing my weekly data collection ritual I noticed some interesting data points. First of all, the S&P 500 P/E fell from 20.86 for the 2/11/2005 week to 19.71 last week. The Dow Jones Utility Index's P/E dropped from 19.19 for the 2/11/2005 week to 17.85 last week. If you look at the charts, this phenomenon must be from an increase in earnings and not a price change.Also, if you will note

LBnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1108853365114344882005-02-19T14:46:00.000-08:002005-02-21T09:08:19.796-08:00

This weeks Investment Roundtable is discussing Apple Computer (Nasdaq: AAPL). I kind of dreaded this choice by the Roundtable members. This company is very difficult to analyze intelligently. AAPL is obviously not a value pick, but as always I like to add my two cents to the Roundtable process.Fundamentally, this company is rather expensive based on Benjamin Graham criteria:P/E 70 = No, Benjamin

LBnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1108683055292523572005-02-17T15:29:00.000-08:002005-02-17T15:43:17.113-08:00

Here are two stocks that have broken down that could have larger implications for the market in general.Click to Enlarge Above you will find the chart of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM). It has finally broken out to the downside. I've been waiting for that to happen for quite a while (Reminds me of Krispy Kreme). There are a lot of secrets going on in and around this company. I don't think we'll get the

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1108611177957080652005-02-16T19:32:00.000-08:002005-02-16T19:47:52.560-08:00

Let's take a look at the big picture for a moment. Below you will find the monthly charts for the DJIA and the Nasdaq 100. They are both painting a different picture and keeping me up at night. One (DJIA) is looking rather toppy and the other (NDX) is looking like it just broke out from a very bullish bottoming pattern. Your guess is as good as mine. Let's take a look:Click to Enlarge As you can

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1108596975244143342005-02-16T15:30:00.000-08:002005-02-16T17:16:59.953-08:00

This post has nothing to do with fundamental analysis, but sometimes I like to peruse through the Dow 30 charts every now and then to get a taste of where some of the big boys are going. Below you will find some of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) components with some commentary. I think you will see the efficacy of looking at the monthly view of these big boys for long-term supply and

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1108513287055506202005-02-15T15:59:00.000-08:002005-02-15T16:21:27.056-08:00

A reader had this question with regards to my second Microsoft post:"600 shares will cost you more than $10,000. Are we in a margin account or buying up the $10,000 and stop?Also, any special thoughts on margin account?"First of all, no I was not using a margin account for the example. The example was very basic and I stated such. I probably did get caught up in the simplicity of the example,

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1108323561799014522005-02-13T11:22:00.000-08:002005-02-13T16:43:24.066-08:00

I had a very nice report written about Toyota for the Investment Roundtable, but somehow Blogger's software screwed up. Since the report took me many hours to research and write, I don't have the time or patience to re-write it.Basic Conclusion = Don't Buy shares in Toyota!I apologize for the short post and I hope it does not happen again.For some real posts check out the other members who write

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1108060413684699422005-02-10T10:10:00.000-08:002005-02-10T10:33:33.683-08:00

Earlier this week I recommended Microsoft as a purchase for the long-term security holder. As a secondary part of the Microsoft recommendation, I will go through an exercise that will help you figure out the correct position size for your portfolio. Here is my actual summary from my last report "...I would purchase a half position at this point and wait to purchase the other half once MSFT

LBnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1107476037462619952005-02-07T16:11:00.000-08:002005-02-08T15:54:37.933-08:00

Two weeks ago I wrote up a report on AT&T and last week I wrote up a report on WMT. The AT&T advice didn't really work out since they got bought out pretty quickly after my report. Do you think SBC Communications was reading what the Soothsayer had to say? (I doubt it too!) We are still waiting on WMT to break out, but they had a pretty good last quarter. I've also written up a report over at

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1107539663620772292005-02-04T09:51:00.000-08:002005-02-04T09:54:23.620-08:00

My arch nemesis is smarter than words. Best Regards, The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1107473534107254982005-02-03T15:26:00.000-08:002005-02-03T15:32:14.106-08:00

For those of you who do not visit www.billcara.com every day (you should by the way), I have a research report up over there that some of you might be interested in. The report is on Kos Pharmaceuticals. It is more of a GARP stock rather than a straight value stock, but some of you might still be interested. Go check it out! Addendum: I don't know if that many people took my advice (I'm not that

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1107301611708756082005-02-01T14:27:00.000-08:002005-02-01T16:39:38.150-08:00

My last recommendation was to look for entry into Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). I stated my case and claimed that a good entry position would be in the $55.50-$55.75 region (look for good volume on the breakout). Today, I will describe the second step of investing...position sizing and risk control. A lot of individual investors have way too much risk tied up in any one investment. It is probably the

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1107282500840742562005-02-01T10:26:00.000-08:002005-02-01T10:28:20.840-08:00

Here is a good post about the good 'ol Oracle of Omaha. I hope you enjoy and learn. Best Regards, The Soothasyer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1107197533622717342005-01-31T10:45:00.000-08:002005-01-31T10:52:13.623-08:00

It is time to take profits on the AT&T trade, if you purchased any shares. On my recommendations you wouldn't have. If you own shares, the end game is here. AT&T is being acquired by SBC Communications for $19.71/share. Best Regards, The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1107109505936813262005-01-30T09:25:00.000-08:002005-01-30T13:09:15.286-08:00

Last week I wrote about AT&T (NYSE: T) and the value that I saw in the company. A few days later SBC Communications came in and said they see the same value. They want to buy AT&T. AT&T shares jumped around 7% on the announcement. T did not however jump above the resistance level of $21.00-$21.35. So, this resistance level still holds and is still valid. The above is all just speculation. I

LBnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1106840060725596182005-01-27T07:25:00.000-08:002005-01-27T07:34:20.726-08:00

It seems I'm not the only one who finds value in AT&T. It seems SBC Communications is in talks with AT&T for a possible acquisition. Would this be good or bad? I'm not really sure since there are so many assumptions that one would have to make to answer that question. The market sure seemed to like the news. AT&T was up 7%. We'll have to see how the stock does through the day and the next

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1106677498407523192005-01-25T09:48:00.000-08:002005-01-25T10:24:58.406-08:00

Here is an interesting comment from the portfolio manager for the Concierge Investing service of Raymond James, "With these considerations, we believe that the two main themes that we will follow throughout the year are 'Err on the Side of Caution' and 'Active Investing.' No longer will a buy and hold strategy suffice in a world where companies are as dynamic as the economy and world conditions.

LBnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1106320884662132142005-01-23T07:08:00.000-08:002005-01-22T16:27:28.183-08:00

Enough is enough...let's face it; finding great value companies to buy right now is difficult. I was trying to give you timely buys, but this "value" drought could go on for quite a while. So, instead of waiting forever, let's take a look at one of the companies I was waiting for to get in a good position technically as well as financially. The company is AT&T (NYSE: T). I have been watching

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1106340170777907542005-01-21T13:36:00.000-08:002005-01-21T13:22:40.793-08:00

Those of us who join together once a week to write about an investment idea got Ebay exactly right. Most of us told you to stay away. You can see the proof here. Let's see how Wall Street handled EBay: January 20th, 2005 Deutsche Securities: Downgrade January 20th, 2005 Piper Jaffray: Downgrade January 20th, 2005 Friedman Billings: Downgrade January 20th, 2005 AmTech Research: Downgrade January

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1106191537797825582005-01-19T19:20:00.000-08:002005-01-19T19:25:37.796-08:00

I thought I would post another interesting article for you to peruse. This one comes from Dr. Doom himself, Dr. Marc Faber. He is and has been pretty bearish on the US economy for quite a while now. I agree with many of his points, but you should be aware. Very rarely do such extremely bearish (or bullish) people get everything exactly correct. That doesn't mean you should not pay attention

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1106018086099671012005-01-17T19:08:00.000-08:002005-01-17T19:14:46.100-08:00

The Investment Roundtable this week was replaced with posts by the other bloggers who participate with results on what our recommendations accomplished in our previous lives over at SecurityTraders.com. Keep in mind that each of our styles of investing differs so each of our recommendations is for different styles. My style is long-term investing where as Kaushik's style is based entirely on

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1105715221046720582005-01-14T06:59:00.000-08:002005-01-14T07:07:01.046-08:00

I find it very hard to believe that I am the only person who has seen the very strong resistance in the Dow Jones Indicies. I have not seen it mentioned anywhere else, though. So, I am either way off the mark or I'm so right without anyone else noticing that it is scary. Take a look at the charts of the DJIA, DJA, and IXIC I provided below (at the very bottom of the page). It seems they are

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1105639073819495252005-01-13T09:49:00.000-08:002005-01-13T10:08:58.036-08:00

I have posted below a replication of a newsletter I received today. It describes some of Warren Buffett's investment thoughts. It is a good read. Here you go: "Dear Investor, It's a New Year. Let's resolve to make it the best year ever for our investments. I have already made one investment resolution for myself this year. To read the biographies of the most successful investors and learn from

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1105633285266215582005-01-13T08:13:00.000-08:002005-01-13T08:26:42.710-08:00

I just came across another event that proves that Wall Street is not the friend of the average investor. It is a news story in the Wall Street Journal. Most will not be able to access the story since it is for subscribers only, but here is the gist from the first paragraph: "The Securities and Exchange Commission is preparing to charge the New York Stock Exchange with failing to police its elite

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1105390359602018082005-01-10T13:44:00.000-08:002005-01-10T20:11:24.326-08:00

I don't particularly like making upcoming year predictions. I also don't put much stock into most that I read. I like the markets to let me know what is going to happen within a predictable range a safe time frame ahead of the actual happenings. I also know that a lot of people do enjoy upcoming yearly predictions. So, I thought as a service to my readers who do enjoy these types of musings, I

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1105318282907954052005-01-09T16:48:00.000-08:002005-01-09T16:51:22.906-08:00

This weeks Investment Roundtable is hosted over at GalaTime. We analyzed the investment merit of Dell, Inc. Go check out what all of us had to say! Best Regards, The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1105205987550976922005-01-08T09:35:00.000-08:002005-01-08T09:39:47.550-08:00

For the new year and my new readers I thought I should state what this blog is all about once again. You are probably pretty skeptical about the title above and you should be. Some people might not even read past the title. They, and a lot of people, would just assume that below the title of this post would be some hair brained scheme to make millions from selling ornamental hockey sticks to the

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1104982090174149812005-01-05T19:24:00.000-08:002005-01-05T19:34:22.870-08:00

For the long-term investor I have been looking at the different indices. The Dow's are all looking toppy, but take a look at a monthly view from the NASDAQ. Click to Enlarge Why are the Dow's showing resistance while the NASDAQ has the making of an inverted head and shoulder pattern? The pattern still has to breakout convincingly, but the market is definitely not making it easy on investors

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1104895692549138912005-01-04T19:23:00.000-08:002005-01-05T19:35:23.306-08:00

The DJIA has now told us how it feels about there being a toppy market. Take a look at this monthly view below. Long-term investors (and everyone else) should be looking for ways to position themselves in this topping atmosphere. Click to Enlarge Maybe that involves selling out and sitting on the sidelines for a while? Maybe that just involves tightening your stops? Whatever you do when

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1104777016461737232005-01-03T10:20:00.000-08:002005-01-04T17:05:07.576-08:00

Take a look at the Dow Jones Composite Index (Not the Dow Jones Industrial). It appears that the DJA is right at the resistance level it was at during the late 90's. Will it break through to new heights or get trampled back down again? Click to Enlarge Long-term investors (and everyone else) should pay attention. This could be a sign for what's to come with the other indicies. The DJA is not

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1104378104444535072005-01-02T01:36:00.000-08:002005-01-02T11:25:32.096-08:00

This week's Investment Roundtable will be discussing eBay. We have brought together many great writers with many great opinions. I know these roundtables can be long to read, but every word is important. As always, these articles are for educational purposes only. This roundtable should only be a part of your own investment research process. This might be the first time that some of you have

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1104348462172086622004-12-29T14:45:00.000-08:002004-12-29T12:46:17.810-08:00

NASDAQ.com has a nice feature that I have mentioned plenty of times during my writing for the Weekly Investment Roundtable I contribute to. NASDAQ.com has a guru page that analyzes stocks from a "guru" point of view. Below are some picks that they believe Benjamin Graham would have liked based on his investment requirements. These stocks are on my watch list, but the guru page is not my only

LBnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1104356265426268332004-12-29T13:30:00.000-08:002004-12-29T13:37:45.426-08:00

Here is an article at Morningstar that takes a look at my arch nemesis' portfolio for Berkshire Hathaway (you may have to register to see the article): The 28 Stocks in the Buffett Portfolio I'll take a look at each stock technically in future articles so check back often. P.S. Warren Buffett is not really my arch nemesis...he doesn't even know I exist...yet. Best Regards, The Soothsayer of

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1104088256408634702004-12-26T11:08:00.000-08:002004-12-26T11:10:56.406-08:00

The Investment Roundtable is up over at Sixth World Management and Commentary. This week we took a look at GLD. Come check it out to see where we think GLD is heading in the future. Best Regards, The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1103750767233951482004-12-22T13:23:00.000-08:002004-12-22T13:26:07.233-08:00

Bill Cara, formerly the Trader Wizard, is now back in action. Make sure you check out his blog as often as you can. You can find his new home at www.billcara.com. Best Regards, The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1103665120872893322004-12-21T13:35:00.000-08:002004-12-21T18:49:37.333-08:00

Mr. Mauldin tells us in his weekly article about an inverted yield curve currently in England. That is not good news for our friends across the way. Here are my past articles on the yield curve: Part 1 Part 2 Part3 You can read Mr. Mauldin each and every week at the link on my sidebar (I do). P.S. Random Roger has a picture of the current inverted yield curve for England if you would like to

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1103489489662834112004-12-19T13:47:00.000-08:002004-12-19T12:51:29.663-08:00

This weeks investment roundtable is being held over at Sixth World Management and Commentary. This week we take a look at investing in Motorola. Come check it out. Best Regards, The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1103258026398780272004-12-16T20:30:00.000-08:002004-12-17T06:19:08.893-08:00

Bill Cara, also known as the Trader Wizard, is taking a vacation. He has been cut off from his blog so he asked a few of us financial bloggers to post a letter for him for his readers. Here it is: TW Networkers, The Trader Wizard is going to take a holiday. For business reasons, the web site has been shut down. Readers can reach me directly at carabill@rogers.com When I return, in January, I

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1103129214481555592004-12-15T08:18:00.000-08:002004-12-16T13:23:36.906-08:00

The academics claim that timing the market is almost impossible. This is probably true for individuals who do not care to watch the markets, but any astute investor/trader can pretty readily spot major turning points in the market or in individual stocks. The best way to do this is through spotting divergences with the help of technical indicators. Divergences occur when the security's price

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1103120225997742032004-12-15T06:14:00.000-08:002004-12-15T06:17:05.996-08:00

For those of you who do not know by now, Stocks Futures & Options (SFO) Magazine is offering a free subscription for 2005. It would definitely be worth it. You can find out more about the deal here. Best Regards, The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1103068464943468822004-12-14T15:42:00.000-08:002004-12-14T18:41:55.863-08:00

The immediacy frame of mind can be very dangerous to the long-term value investor. You must get past this mind-set to be successful. I see it all the time and all around. I just shake my head in dis-belief. The daily newspaper (most financial media) always has a reason why the market did this or that. It doesn't matter whether it is true or not, they have to print something. Dear reader, they are

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1103042004398435482004-12-14T08:20:00.000-08:002004-12-14T08:48:53.320-08:00

Congratulations are in order for two on my trading blog partners. Kaushik Gala and Bill Cara, who are the operators of the GalaTime and Trader Wizard investment blogs, were reviewed this month in Forbes magazine. Congratulations gentlemen, you deserve the spotlight! Keep up the good work. Both of these blogs are located on my sidebar. Check them out. Here are the reviews: http://www.forbes.com

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1102566836250315182004-12-08T20:22:00.000-08:002004-12-08T20:52:16.423-08:00

Basic technical analysis is not a difficult area to master. The basics like trendlines and resistance and support areas are also the most important to learn. Sometimes it can be more of an art than a science though. Check out the two charts below. One is with all of my trendlines and support and resistance areas. The other is the future outcome. Click to Enlarge I passed on purchasing PLB

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1102213954263213012004-12-04T18:30:00.000-08:002004-12-04T18:32:34.263-08:00

The new Investment Roundtable is up at securitytraders.com. This week we took a look at Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (NYSE: MSO). Make sure you check it out. Best Regards, The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1102043593649794662004-12-02T19:10:00.000-08:002004-12-05T00:16:59.196-08:00

Now that we know what an effective tool the yield curve can be let's take a look at what it is saying now. Click to Enlarge Using the academic study we looked at in Part II of this series, we can see that there is a less than 5% chance that a recession is 4 quarters away. Remember, the study took the 10-year T-Bill rate and subtracted that by the 3-month T-Bill rate. Using that simple

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1102020790375473802004-12-02T13:49:00.000-08:002004-12-03T11:45:36.276-08:00

Bill Cara (Trader Wizard) and I are launching a new project. At his site, http://www.traderwizard.com/, we are starting a forum for the 20 and 30-something crowd. It will be a resource that will help with all of your investing questions. Bill, as I have said before, is one of the good guys in the investing world. He truly wants to help everyone he possibly can to invest well. Bill is also only

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1101943917845448412004-12-01T15:31:00.000-08:002004-12-01T15:36:28.266-08:00

I just wanted to remind my readers that I am using real money to try to help show you how to invest for the long-run. As you can see, I have made $0.10 since the last statement I posted. Obviously we need to put this money to work. I've been thinking of an addition to this site that I think could help out many of my readers. It will involve your 401(k) at your place of employment. I'll

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1101856057902769222004-11-30T21:03:00.000-08:002004-12-03T05:49:15.436-08:00

My last report contained the very basics of how an armchair economist can predict the future of the economy by using the yield curve. Now, we will get a little more in depth into the study of yield curves. I am doing these reports because I believe that, in a few months to a year, you will be wanting to know how to spot a recession coming up. The yield curve is one of the best tools to use for

LBnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1101834686854769422004-11-30T08:58:00.000-08:002004-12-02T06:24:54.580-08:00

Dear Reader, Please do not fall into this trap. It seems people are betting their entire future on the housing market. This is not smart investing like some of the individuals in the article claim (Mr. Derdzinski). Mortgaging your house for 3-times what it is worth is a dismal strategy in fact. You are relying on luck rather than astute analysis. Doesn't this kind of remind everyone of the

LBnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1101777250193070142004-11-29T16:55:00.000-08:002004-12-02T06:20:21.620-08:00

I’m sure most of you have heard the term “yield curve” before but never really understood its meaning or what it can show you. I am going to try to explain exactly what the yield curve is, what it does, and how you can use it for long-term investing. You will want to remember this article in a few months…trust me. You can find the yield curve every day here at Yahoo Finance. Basically, the

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1101676890997658002004-11-28T13:19:00.000-08:002004-11-29T11:56:52.100-08:00

The SecurityTraders.com Investment Roundtable for the week is up and running. This week we dissected Disney (NYSE: DIS). Come check out what some of the best financial writers on the web had to say about DIS here. Best Regards, The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1101676724849472362004-11-28T13:15:00.000-08:002004-11-29T11:57:15.486-08:00

Congratulations is in order to one of our fellow financial writers. Bill Cara (Trader Wizard) had a very good write up about his website in Barrons this week. Everyone who reads his musings daily knows that he deserves this. He is one of the good guys in the investment world. Congratulations Bill! If you don't already know, you can read Bill's words here every single day. Here is what Barrons

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1101343537458316172004-11-24T16:39:00.000-08:002004-11-24T19:48:19.636-08:00

I just found a useful feature over at StockCharts.com that I would like to share with my readers. I am a long-term investor. Therefore, my first stop is always Bigcharts.com. I look at their charts with "all data" selected. They show you the whole picture, from when the stock first started trading (not always with the companies that have been around forever, but most of the picture). Then, if I

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1101181677491080182004-11-22T18:56:00.000-08:002004-11-25T08:40:40.446-08:00

I don't believe this is the best time to begin trading. It is probably going to be one of the best times to learn to trade/invest, but it won't always be pretty. You don't become a good trader from your gains, you become a good trader/investor from your losses. I knew many people who thought they were great traders during the end of the 90's. You can guess how that ended up. The traders that

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1100791581051685882004-11-18T07:24:00.000-08:002004-11-18T07:26:21.050-08:00

What am I doing? I thought this was a web site about investing. How are you, the reader, going to learn anything if there is not any investing going on? Well, here is a good lesson for you: Don’t trade/invest just to trade/invest. For long-term oriented traders and investors you have to let the market, stocks, bonds, currencies, wheat, gold, etc. come to you. I have a goal for this web site of

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1100616507907682572004-11-16T05:57:00.000-08:002004-11-16T06:48:27.906-08:00

This post is for my Grandma and to whoever else is hoping that the stock market is going to go back to the good 'ol days of the 90's. This hope is well grounded...you want to retire at some point in your life. The only problem is that no matter how much hope you have, it is not going to be enough to push the markets higher. You could have 10 lbs of hope or 1,000,000 lbs of hope (is hope

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1100544108421404382004-11-15T10:36:00.000-08:002004-11-16T09:44:35.963-08:00

Do you think I am joking when I say that Wall Street and their friends are not the average investors' friend? I am truly not a "nut" and just posting random backlashes against them for some secret reason. Here, Marginal Revolution writer Alex Tabarrak fills us in on a tiny little secret that my readers would probably like to know. "Senatorial Privilege" Hmmmm... Makes you think doesn't it?

LBnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1100415291009532922004-11-13T22:42:00.000-08:002004-11-13T22:54:51.010-08:00

Our first report is up at SecurityTraders.com. Come check it out! We are seriously taking on Wall Street. I've said before that Wall Street's business model is old and outdated. I'll get into that more some other time. The individuals involved in the Financial Writers Guild have nothing to sell. All we want is to help individuals increase their wealth and realise that Wall Street is not their

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1100364860090160802004-11-13T06:51:00.000-08:002004-11-16T15:49:05.833-08:00

Just so you can see that I do have actual money on the line with my picks, I have posted this account statement. I have obviously taken off my name, address, and account number. Click to Enlarge You have the money Soothsayer...let's make a pick. Soon I promise! Best Regards, The Soothsayer of Omaha

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1100357124389125942004-11-13T06:41:00.000-08:002004-11-13T06:45:24.390-08:00

I have not yet made an investment pick. I was waiting for the emotions to cool down from the election. Well, cool down they did not, they took off. The market indices have shot up after the election without me on board. It does not matter much. The stocks I have been looking to invest in have not participated in this last run up. So, my first pick will be coming shortly...be patient. If

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1100356764581610962004-11-13T06:36:00.000-08:002004-11-13T06:39:24.580-08:00

I am a part of a project that will revolutionize investment research for the individual investor. It is called securitytraders.com and Wall Street should be scared. It is basically an open source community of like minded independent investment writers. These writers are sick of the hype and sales pitches that Wall Street tries to pass off as valid research. It is not a level playing field out

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1098935424213559912004-10-27T20:24:00.000-07:002004-10-28T06:46:48.126-07:00

Is this new terrorist threat video a clue that guarantees an attack between now and the election? Many are frightened by this video and the words used. I would agree that the words used should elicit fear in any human. I mean "blood flowing through our streets" and "so many dead" that we won't be able to count. This is not normal every day speech that you hear. This is scary stuff. But if this

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1098888814222498022004-10-27T07:04:00.000-07:002004-11-12T18:47:19.953-08:00

One of the reasons purported by the media for an ailing stock market is that the election is not going to be a blow out. We don’t really know who is going to win this one. This causes uncertainty and uncertainty in any market is bad. It leads to miscommunication and misinformation, which leads to losses. Therefore, the big boys are on the sidelines not willing to risk their capital. November 2nd

LBnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8790457.post-1098228500848636042004-10-19T16:23:00.000-07:002004-10-19T16:28:20.846-07:00

“A $10,000 investment in 1965 would be worth over $50,000,000 in 2003” or so the story goes when you hear about Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. He is the “Oracle of Omaha” (Where he was born and lived/lives). The Midwestern boy who made good with his hard work and smarts. He is considered by many as the best investor who ever lived. Well, Buffett definitely is one of the best in his niche.

LBnoreply@blogger.com2