Wednesday, October 27, 2004

Why so worried?

One of the reasons purported by the media for an ailing stock market is that the election is not going to be a blow out. We don’t really know who is going to win this one. This causes uncertainty and uncertainty in any market is bad. It leads to miscommunication and misinformation, which leads to losses. Therefore, the big boys are on the sidelines not willing to risk their capital.

November 2nd could be the day that the larger players are waiting for, but it might not just be directly caused by the election. Do you remember what happened in Spain right before their elections? Is a terrorist attack right before the elections possible in the US? Some say no and others say yes.

The Washington Post reported last Saturday that "U.S. intelligence and law enforcement officials say they have found no direct evidence of plans for an election-related terror attack after a five-week investigation". This contradicts other reports that say that US intelligence has found credible evidence that there is a plot occurring. I don’t think that the US intelligence community wants another blunder under their belts so I don’t think they are slacking here or lying or covering up or any "black helicopter" type stuff. But, what if? I’m not saying that a terrorist attack is going to happen before November 2nd, I’m saying it’s a high possibility.

I don’t have fancy computers that have intercept capabilities or a legion of spies dedicated to my every whim, but I do have common sense. My common sense tells me that the possibility of there being a terrorist attack before the elections here is greater than 50%. This is a greater probability than me knowing whether GW or Mr. Kerry is going to be sitting in the Oval Office.
I believe there is a greater than 50% chance because these terrorists are not stupid. This could be their last chance to make a difference for quite some time. Will they attack the US while John Kerry is the President? I doubt it since abstaining from blowing things up for four years will show that GW was the bad guy and the terrorists were just being picked on. These guys are patient…if anything, they are patient and they will wait for the right moment.

These terrorists (not insurgents) have also seen that their blowing up of things actually works. I’m not going to blame the Spaniards for anything, but they have proven to these fanatics that their "work" can actually change the world. The terrorists are on a high right now. Their messages are being heard around the world every hour of every day. They are getting cocky. This will lead to a mistake…cockiness usually does. This mistake could be another terrorist attack on US soil.

This is not a prediction, just thought provoking (hopefully). This is reason enough to stay on the sidelines in the markets though. I will be making stock picks pretty soon and putting my $5,000 to work. I can’t wait to begin showing 20 and 30 somethings that they can retire wealthy without the help of the government or Wall Street. But, my stock picks probably won’t begin until after November 2nd and maybe not until the new year. So, beware Mr. Buffett; my picks are coming…along with the capital gains. For if I don’t invest, the terrorists win. (My sad attempt at humor. My apologies.)

Best Regards,
The Soothsayer of Omaha

Here are some links for you to check out for yourself and as always you can Google this stuff:


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